Three Key Matchups That Will Shape the College Football Playoff Race

As the final stretch of the college football regular season approaches, the pressure is on. With only three weeks left to play, the College Football Playoff (CFP) picture is still far from settled. The stakes have never been higher, as each game could have a major impact on which teams make the cut for the four-team playoff and which are left on the outside looking in. While many teams still control their own destiny, one loss could be enough to knock any number of contenders out of the race.

As we head into the final weeks, here are three crucial games from each remaining regular season week that could have the biggest impact on shaping the College Football Playoff field.

Week 12

No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia

The pressure is mounting for Georgia, which cannot afford another loss after falling to No. 11 Ole Miss earlier this season. Sitting with two losses already, a third at home to Tennessee would almost certainly eliminate the Bulldogs from playoff contention. For Georgia to have a chance at returning to the postseason, they need a win here.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is in a much better position, with the Vols still firmly in the mix for a playoff spot. A win would not only solidify their chances of making the 12-team playoff, but also keep them on track for a potential SEC title game appearance in December. A loss, while not fatal, would drop them into the pool of two-loss SEC teams, which could make their path to the playoffs significantly more difficult.

Kansas at No. 6 BYU

Kansas has had a disappointing season by some metrics, but the Jayhawks are far from a push-over. With a competitive 3-6 record, five of their losses have come by six points or fewer, including a recent upset of Iowa State. Their challenge in Week 12 will be to spoil BYU’s perfect record. The Cougars have also had a few close calls this season, with several wins coming by small margins, so they know the pressure of every game at this point. BYU will need to prove they can win convincingly to make their case for a playoff spot, and this Week 12 game could be a pivotal test.

Utah at No. 17 Colorado

Colorado has been one of the most exciting teams in the country this season, and the Buffaloes’ playoff hopes are still alive—at least for now. With a strong 8-2 record, they are in control of their own destiny in the Big 12. If they win out, they will find themselves in the Big 12 championship game, with a shot at earning an automatic berth into the CFP. However, Utah will be looking to dash Colorado’s hopes, and this game could shake up the Big 12 race. A loss for the Buffaloes would create chaos in the conference, and put even more pressure on their remaining matchups.

Week 13

No. 24 Army at No. 8 Notre Dame

Army enters this matchup undefeated at 9-0, but they haven’t yet faced a powerhouse like Notre Dame. The Black Knights’ conference schedule has been manageable, and they need this win to prove they can compete at a higher level. For Notre Dame, which has already suffered one significant loss this season, a second defeat—especially at the hands of a non-Power 5 team—could end any hopes of a playoff berth. Notre Dame is not in a conference, so a loss here would be particularly damaging, as they would miss out on a chance to claim a conference championship. Army, meanwhile, would instantly grab a quality win that could catapult them into the playoff conversation, making this a high-stakes game for both sides.

No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State

Indiana has been one of the season’s surprise stories, pulling off a massive upset against Michigan. But their test against Ohio State will be a much more difficult challenge. A win would give Indiana a strong case for a CFP spot, but the Buckeyes are still one of the top teams in the country and should enter as heavy favorites. For Ohio State, a win is crucial to stay alive in the Big Ten race, and their playoff hopes hinge on continuing to win down the stretch. This matchup could ultimately determine which team secures a spot in the Big Ten championship, and with it, a potential path to the CFP.

No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota

Penn State has quietly stayed in the hunt for a playoff berth, even if their path to the Big Ten championship is more complicated. A strong finish could still earn them a top-seven playoff seed, but a loss to Minnesota could derail those chances. Minnesota, while not ranked as highly, has proven to be competitive, pulling off an impressive win over Southern Cal. Penn State needs to win out and take care of business against lower-ranked opponents to have a shot, but Minnesota’s upset potential makes this a dangerous game for the Nittany Lions.

Week 14

No. 3 Texas at No. 15 Texas A&M

The Lone Star State rivalry game could have major implications for both teams’ playoff hopes. Texas, coming off a narrow loss to Oklahoma, needs a strong finish to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. A win over Texas A&M would give them one final boost before the Big 12 championship game, where they’ll likely face a one-loss opponent. Texas A&M, with two losses, needs a big win to make their case for an at-large playoff berth. This will be a crucial game for both teams’ postseason dreams, and the winner could find themselves in the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl or beyond.

No. 8 Notre Dame at Southern Cal

Notre Dame’s playoff hopes rest on this game. With one loss to Northern Illinois already on their resume, the Irish can’t afford another misstep. A win over Southern Cal would help repair their reputation, especially if they finish the season strong. Southern Cal has had an underwhelming year, but they have played several teams close. This game could be a chance for the Trojans to play spoiler and knock Notre Dame out of the playoff race entirely.

No. 7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt

This final regular-season matchup could be a dramatic one. If Tennessee enters this game with one loss, a win would secure their spot in the SEC championship game and keep their playoff hopes alive. However, if they enter with two losses, their playoff chances could be on the line. Vanderbilt has already knocked off Alabama this season, so don’t count them out as potential spoilers. If Tennessee slips up, the Commodores could spoil their postseason hopes in what promises to be a nerve-wracking rivalry game.

As the regular season nears its conclusion, each of these matchups will have massive implications on the College Football Playoff race. With so much still to be decided, these high-stakes games will help determine which teams remain in the hunt for a national championship, and which will see their dreams dashed.